Scotland Set to Miss Child Poverty Targets "By a Wide Margin," Leading Charity Warns

Scotland is on track to fall well short of its legally binding child poverty reduction goals, according to a new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), one of the UK's most prominent social reform charities. The organisation says the Scottish government's current approach will not deliver the scale of change required and is calling for "radical change" to get the country's anti-poverty pledges back on course.

The JRF's Poverty in Scotland report found that one in five children north of the border is living in relative poverty. Relative poverty is defined as a household having disposable income, after housing costs, below 60% of the UK median, adjusted for family size and composition. Between 2022 and 2025, the child poverty rate in Scotland averaged 21%, a figure the charity describes as stubbornly high. By comparison, the UK-wide average stands at 28%.

The findings place the Scottish government's ambitions in serious jeopardy. In 2017, MSPs passed legislation requiring ministers to meet four targets, including reducing the share of children in relative poverty to below 10% by 2030. According to the JRF, that goal will be missed "by a wide margin" unless a fundamentally different strategy is adopted.

The report's conclusions extend beyond children. Overall, it estimates that 940,000 people in Scotland were living in relative poverty, equivalent to 17% of the population. It also found that 11% of Scots were in deep poverty, with 7% in very deep poverty. Relative poverty rates were highest among children in ethnic minority families, reaching 47%.

The charity acknowledged that "some progress" has been made but argued the Scottish government's existing plans "will not deliver the scale of change needed to shift the dial." It said the reasons behind the failure were complex, pointing to possible contributing factors including UK government austerity, the cost of living crisis, and what it described as a dysfunctional relationship between local and national government in Scotland.

In response to the report, the JRF urged ministers to craft a "much bolder and properly-funded plan to reduce poverty." Its recommendations include rewiring local government, public services and the tax system. The charity also called on Social Justice and Housing Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville not to weaken the existing goals but instead to set "stretching, statutory, income-based poverty-reduction targets, with strong accountability measures."

The report sets out a series of specific policy steps it believes could help reduce poverty. These include creating flexible, well-paid jobs, particularly in parts of Scotland where people cannot find work within easy reach of their homes. It also recommends expanding access to high-quality, affordable childcare with the flexibility needed to allow parents in low-income families to take up employment.

Further proposals include ensuring adequate levels of social security payments, especially for people with disabilities who may have to fund their own care, and maintaining and improving the provision of social and affordable housing, which the JRF says has helped Scotland keep its poverty rate below the UK average.

The Scottish government has defended its record. In a statement issued before the report's publication, Somerville said the Scottish child payment was "providing unparalleled financial support to the families of over 320,000 children." She said the government would do more by expanding breakfast clubs for children and investing more than £40m in improving access to transport and skills for parents. "Overall in 2026-27 we are committing around £3.5bn to policies that tackle poverty and the cost of living," she added.

Ministers also insist they have made great strides, claiming that their policies are keeping 100,000 children out of poverty this year, while accepting there is more to do. Somerville is currently overseeing a review of the poverty reduction goals after some interim targets were missed and data collection was adjusted, complicating the ability to assess progress.

That review comes amid a broader methodological debate. The targets are based on annual figures which can be volatile, and both the JRF and the Scottish government agree that three-year averages offer a more useful measure of underlying trends. The JRF's finding of a 21% average from 2022 to 2025 reflects that approach. It is a statistical nuance that could shape how the review judges the government's performance.

The political stakes are considerable. From his first day in office, eradicating child poverty has sat at the heart of John Swinney's personal political project. In his first interview as first minister in 2024, minutes after being sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh, he said: "My overriding priority will be to work to eradicate child poverty in Scotland." During his successful campaign to retain power at this year's Holyrood election, the SNP leader repeated his determination to achieve that goal.

But the JRF says there is now an "increasing disconnect" between such rhetoric and "the reality of life for families in poverty across Scotland." That gap between political messaging and lived experience is likely to intensify pressure on ministers as the review of the poverty targets proceeds, with campaigners watching closely to see whether the 2030 goals are maintained, strengthened or diluted.

The charity's call for reform extends beyond Holyrood. It argues that action on employment, childcare, social security and housing must be coordinated, and that the relationship between national and local government needs repair if services are to reach the families who need them most. The report also implicitly points to the limits of devolved powers, noting UK government austerity as one factor behind Scotland's difficulties.

With nearly one million Scots in relative poverty and children in ethnic minority families facing the highest rates, the JRF's message is that incremental measures will not be enough. Its verdict—that current plans cannot deliver the necessary transformation—sets up a difficult choice for ministers: keep the targets and find far more ambitious means of meeting them, or risk being remembered for promises that outpaced reality.