Wales first minister backs independence rally, insisting journey has "no turning back"

Thousands of pro-independence campaigners filled the streets of Aberystwyth on Saturday for the latest Yes Cymru march, in a year that has turned the constitutional question in Wales from a fringe campaign slogan into the stated direction of travel for the Welsh government. Addressing a rally in Castle Gardens in the Ceredigion town, first minister Rhun ap Iorwerth told the crowd that Wales is on a journey that has no going back — the first time the head of the Welsh government has joined a Yes Cymru march as first minister.

Organisers said they believed between 8,000 and 9,000 people took part, marching through the town behind banners in the campaign's distinctive red and yellow colours alongside the green, white and red flag of Wales. Photographs from the day showed flag-waving crowds packed behind barriers around the rally stage, with the ruins of Aberystwyth's castle visible in the distance behind the speaker's platform. Banners carried by marchers included a message reading "Yes Cymru. 2032 referendum", pointing to a target date for a vote that campaigners hope will eventually be held.

Ap Iorwerth used his speech to set out what he described as the next stage of the constitutional project, saying the "next step" for Wales has to be "equality with Scotland, as a minimum". The phrase frames a benchmark well short of independence itself, but one that would still involve a materially different constitutional settlement for Wales than the status quo — and it was echoed by the wider language of the speech, which paired the constitutional message with a promise that the government is pursuing "the investment and greater powers we need from Westminster now, so we can make a real difference to people's lives".

The appearance marked a notable change in tone for a party that has spent much of its history as a minority force. Plaid Cymru came into government in Wales following the Senedd elections in May, and Saturday's event was the first large independence march staged since that election. Among the other speakers were Yes Cymru chairman Rob Hughes and Elwyn Vaughan, the Plaid Cymru MS for Gwynedd Maldwyn — a pairing that underlines how closely the governing party's leadership and the campaign movement are now aligned.

The reaction from opposition parties was correspondingly sharp. A Reform Cymru member of the Senedd said he was "disappointed" by the first minister's decision to attend, and that seeing him at such an event so early in the parliamentary term was "disappointing to see... given that Plaid Cymru campaigned on a platform where independence wasn't on the table for the Senedd term". Reform MS Joe Martin told BBC Wales that it was "not where their priorities and their attention should be", while adding a caveat on the substance of the campaign's argument: if there were a clear and overwhelming majority of people in Wales who wanted independence, "then obviously that would change things, but there isn't, there's a clear and overwhelming majority of people who don't want independence."

Welsh Conservative MS Andrew RT Davies struck a different line, arguing that with "waiting times gone up" and Pisa results showing Wales has fallen further behind other parts of the United Kingdom, the first minister would be "better off behind his desk in Cathays sorting the problems that he said he would sort out" — a pointed contrast between campaigning abroad and governing at home. Welsh Labour declined to comment.

A central plank of the speech was the campaigners' claim that devolution has stalled. Ap Iorwerth referenced the prime minister's comments the previous day ruling out handing the Welsh government the powers needed to hold a referendum on independence, and declared: "The right to self-determination is not a right that the UK government is willing to acknowledge." That framing casts the dispute not merely as a disagreement between parties in Cardiff, but as one between the Welsh and UK governments over whether the case for a referendum has even been properly opened.

The Senedd itself has been weighing in. This week, members narrowly rejected a Reform motion declaring that Wales should remain part of the United Kingdom. The vote was initially tied, with 45 members backing the motion and 45 opposed, and only the casting vote of Presiding Officer Huw Irranca-Davies — cast against the proposal in line with parliamentary convention — prevented the assembly from formally affirming the union position. The margin of that result illustrates how finely balanced the constitutional argument has become in the chamber.

Responding to the criticism, a Plaid Cymru spokesperson said the party was balancing two sets of demands at once: "We are getting on with the priorities facing Wales right now — reducing NHS waiting times, improving literacy and numeracy, supporting jobs and businesses, and tackling the cost of living — while also standing up for Wales and being ambitious for our nation's future."

Whether that balance will hold is the central political question of the term. Saturday's rally suggests the constitutional flank of the government's agenda is now being played publicly, at scale, and by the first minister in person — a clear break with the position of previous administrations, which declined to endorse Yes Cymru's marches. It also sets up a recurring collision with opposition parties, whose objections are less about the destination than about the timing. The referendum that campaigners have pencilled in for 2032 remains, on the UK government's account as reported at the rally, blocked by the absence of the necessary devolved powers, meaning the gap between the momentum visible in Aberystwyth and the legal route to a vote is likely to widen rather than narrow.

For now, the crowds came first and the arithmetic of the Senedd followed. Ap Iorwerth's message was that the direction of travel is settled; Mr Martin's retort was that the numbers behind it are not. Both claims are likely to be tested again before 2032.